I have been getting this question almost every week since January: "Sir, should I buy now or wait?" My answer is always the same — what matters is not when you buy, it is what you buy and how much of it you buy relative to your total portfolio. But I understand the question. The Nifty 50 has been trading in a wide range for months and it can feel like a coin flip.

Let me share my honest view on where the index stands, what I am watching, and how I am thinking about client portfolios right now.

The broad picture

Nifty 50 has been consolidating in the 21,000–23,500 range for much of the past several months. This is not unusual after a major run-up. Markets rarely go straight up or straight down. Consolidations like this are where disciplined investors build positions — provided the fundamentals support it.

India's fundamentals remain solid: GDP growth holding above 6.5%, credit growth healthy, and government capex continuing. The bigger source of volatility has been external — US rate expectations, dollar strength, and FII selling pressure. When foreign investors sell, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been absorbing it. That is a significant structural shift from five years ago.

Support levels I'm watching

From a technical standpoint, these are the zones that matter to me:

"A support level is not a magic line. It is a zone where enough buyers have historically stepped in to stop a decline. It tells you where the probability of a reversal is higher — nothing more." — J.M. Bilal
  • 21,500 — The critical floor. This is where the 200-day moving average sits. A weekly close below this would be a meaningful technical deterioration and would cause me to review position sizing across portfolios.
  • 20,800 — Strong institutional demand zone. Multiple instances of heavy buying at or near this level. For long-term investors with a 3–5 year view, this has historically been a strong accumulation area.
  • 20,200 — Extreme scenario. I would need a significant global shock to see this level tested. It is in my head as a plan, but not something I am actively positioning for.

Resistance levels

  • 23,400 — Immediate overhead. Previous swing high. A decisive weekly close above this, with good volumes, would signal the next leg of the rally.
  • 24,200+ — All-time high territory. Getting and staying above this would be the confirmation that the consolidation was truly base-building, not distribution.

What I'm watching on the macro side

Beyond charts, these are the events that could shift the tone:

  • RBI rate decisions. A rate cut cycle would be meaningfully positive for BFSI, real estate, and auto sectors — all of which are interest-rate sensitive.
  • US Federal Reserve. The Fed's path remains uncertain. Any hawkish surprise could trigger FII outflows from emerging markets including India.
  • Earnings season. Corporate earnings growth in the 12–15% range is what the market currently prices in. A significant miss on that would be a problem.
  • Monsoon. A normal or above-normal monsoon supports rural consumption — which feeds into FMCG and consumer staples. Below-normal could dampen sentiment in those sectors.

How I'm positioning client portfolios at ShareWealth

I am not making dramatic changes. Dramatic changes are usually a sign of reacting to noise rather than signal.

The sectors I remain overweight on:

  • BFSI — Valuations reasonable, asset quality stable, rate cut tailwind ahead.
  • Capital Goods and Infrastructure — The government's ₹11 lakh crore capex target supports multi-year order books.
  • Pharma and Healthcare — Defensive characteristics, strong domestic and export outlook.

I am more cautious on IT at current valuations pending a clearer US demand signal, and on consumer discretionary where rural demand recovery has been slower than expected.

My advice based on where you are as an investor

  • Long-term (3–5 years): Keep your SIP running. Do not pause. Use dips toward 21,500 as opportunities to add lump sum if you have the surplus. The India growth story is intact.
  • Tactical investor: Consider booking partial profits if and when we reach 23,400. Stay in cash or short duration debt with that portion. Re-enter on confirmed breakout above 24,200 or on a tested support at 21,500.
  • First-time investor: Start with SIPs. Do not try to time this. The only thing timing the market does for most beginners is keep them out of the market during good years.

Final thought

I started this firm because I made every mistake a beginner can make in the markets. I over-traded. I followed tips. I did not manage risk. I lost everything before I was 20. What eventually worked was not a magic system — it was discipline, a process, and genuine respect for how brutal the market can be when you are unprepared.

The Nifty will move up and down. The question worth spending your energy on is not where it goes next week — it is whether your portfolio is built for what you actually need from it over the next five years.

— J.M. Bilal, CEO, ShareWealth